NetElixir’s Holiday Forecast: 9% YoY growth this year.

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2023 Holiday Trends Marketers Should Know

Securing Attractive Deals

Customers are deal-hunting this season so keep promotions rolling. Consider discounting a different product or product category each week to entice customers to return to your brand. To encourage more units per order, leverage hyper-personalization and AI on top product and category pages and frequent nudges to influence shopping behavior.

We’re seeing a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings and the highest every point of outstanding credit balances; there is not as much cash flow as customers had in prior years, so they will be extra vigilant about securing the best deal and sticking to a budget. Keep an eye on different trends to ensure your product portfolio is evolving, relevant, and in line with changing customer preferences.

Recent Online Sales Boost

Since the latter half of August, NetElixir has noted upward trending online sales. Back-to-school sales have been fairly strong and are always a good indicator of how holiday sales will fare. The holidays may continually show a demand spike around sales events before a significant post-holiday slump. Sales events, like Amazon’s second Prime Day (Early Access) trigger a surge in demand, but also see a significant, post-event sales drop. Keep promotions consistent to balance out early holiday shopping and the long-term bargain hunters.

Role of Mobile

The role of mobile in searches and orders is only growing. Between comparison checks with other online offers while browsing in store, downloading apps for exclusive deals, mobile-only offers, and simple convenience, people are opting to shop from their mobile phone more often. Categories like beauty and apparel have seen the most notable rise of mobile orders within NetElixir’s dataset.

Expanding Customer Journey

So many factors, influences, and touchpoints go into every purchase, so it is important for brands to be wherever their customers are searching and shopping. We expect marketplaces and retail media to account for 55-58% of total online holiday sales this year. TikTok emerged as 2022’s hottest advertising channel, rivaling Google and Meta, so we expect the social commerce trend to continue.

As 2023 is the first truly AI-powered holiday season, it is important for brands to leverage AI to create hyper personalized content to engage with customers and nudge them along the funnel.

What We Learned From The 2022 Holiday Season

Key e-commerce trends from the 2022 holiday season include:

• Customers are increasingly savvy shoppers — if sales were not up to their expectations, they did not make a purchase.
• The holiday season is only expanding. Customers are getting headstarts on their shopping with lucrative deals in September and October in hopes of avoiding inventory issues and stretching their budget to cover bigger gifts. The second Amazon Prime Day (Early Access) in October has become a new norm to kickstart holiday shopping.
  
• Performance Max campaigns accounted for 48% of paid search orders during Cyber 5 2022 and will continue to play a crucial role in brands’ advertising strategy.
• Flexible financing options, such as BNPL and BOPIS, drove a high percentage of last-minute sales as customers liked the assurance of having the perfect gift now.

A Breakdown Of NetElixir’s 2023 Holiday E-Commerce Forecast

We feel cautiously optimistic going into the 2023 holiday season.

For the week of November 12th, we predict strong teaser promotions spurred by sales events leading into Black Friday and the rest of Cyber 5. These teaser promotions and previews will be the next step from pre-holiday promotions that began in September and October to get people excited about their Black Friday must-have lists.

We foresee Black Friday promotions beginning the Monday before Thanksgiving on November 19th. As we saw last year during Cyber 5, (which starts on Thanksgiving Day and lasts until Cyber Monday), we expect week-long Black Friday deals that highlight a specific product or category each day. We believe the trend of deep discounting will continue throughout the entire week and that brands will get creative with their specific promotions to keep customers engaged.

The last week of November and first week of December will be highly competitive; however, there will be ample opportunities to capture consumer demand, so a powerful marketing strategy — as well as a backup plan to stay agile — will be necessary. Some large retailers may test creative promotional strategies this week or run special mini-holiday deals of their own. Smaller businesses will need to remain nimble and be ready with their game plans to seize any opportunities they can. 

During the week of December 10th, we expect BNPL (buy-now-pay-later) models to continue to be a prime driver of online growth. BNPL started to pick up traction in the beginning of the year and we expect momentum to continue with a 20-25% increase in BNPL compared to H1 2023.

The week of December 17th, a day or two before the last shipping day, will most likely see a rise in BOPIS commerce. Many retailers will begin lowering their ad spend this week to better ensure online orders arrive in time for Christmas morning. However, this could be a time for smaller brands to promote their BOPIS options or brick-and-mortar offerings, so be sure to showcase every advantage your store has and leverage the greater online activity inspired by big brand deals and last-minute frenzies. However, inventory issues are likely to persist this week as many retailers stocked up early; be sure to keep your website updated with what you have in stock and offer alternatives for popular sold out items.

Finally, deep discounts on post-holiday inventory will influence the “Me-Buy” week following Christmas and leading up to New Year’s Day. Consider changing your promotional language to highlight your sales and cater to your high-value customers’ self interest.

Methodology Behind Our E-Commerce Forecast

Since 2013, NetElixir has been releasing our E-Commerce Holiday Calendar to forecast the day-by-day online sales volume to help marketers create an effective holiday strategy. We aggregate and analyze weekly data of website visits, website sales, channel-wise investments, and CPC data across different retail industries within our dataset. We track this data throughout the year, segregating based on device, and compare it to the previous years’ week-wise key metrics. Using our proprietary AI-powered customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights, to track and analyze the real-time weekly data.

The post NetElixir’s Complete Guide To The 2023 Holiday Season appeared first on NetElixir.

December 26 to 31, 2021 2022 Online Sales Summary

We anticipate moderate growth in e-commerce sales during the beginning of the workweek of December 26th. We forecast moderate growth of around 5% YoY Monday through Wednesday. E-Commerce sales will be primarily driven through post-holiday discounts to clear leftover merchandise.

At NetElixir, we consider this the “Me-Buy” week. Customers buy discounted gifts for themselves to either combat not getting what they wanted over the holidays or to treat themselves after shopping exclusively for others. However, as we saw during Cyber 5, if sales are not up to customer expectations, they most likely will not make a purchase.

Sales growth will flatten during the end of the week, as customers gear up for New Year’s celebrations.

What Can We Expect In 2022?

As we approach the new year, our CEO and Founder, Udayan Bose, has shared his 2022 Trends & Insights. A few key takeaways are:

• E-commerce sales fluctuations are becoming the new constant.
• Brands will adjust strategies to align with third-party cookie deprecation.
• Retailers should invest in building in-house insights labs.

Having a growth mindset is the most critical factor in succeeding next year. While 2021 has been a turbulent and often unexpected year, an agile marketing strategy and growth mindset allow us to create new opportunities as they arise. As the e-commerce landscape continually evolves to changes in consumer behavior and expectations, brands need to evolve too. 

Brands need a holistic approach to their e-commerce business growth model instead of a strict channel-level focus. Your customer does not interact with your brand through only one channel. Customers discover your brand through a myriad of channels, from the standard digital marketing avenues of search and social to newer mediums like streaming and connected TVs. Consider the entirety of your customer’s purchase journey to meet them where they are. A holistic brand strategy across each channel will help customers connect with and recognize your brand.

Engage your audiences with authentic and inspiring stories. Customers respond to your brand for a reason. Provide them value at every turn to keep them engaged and to attract new users. It is easier to market to friends instead of strangers, so carefully monitor fluctuations in the shopping behavior of your key customer profiles. With a strong retention strategy, you can build a loyal customer base.

“Through the new year, we have to continually evolve our growth strategy. It is essential to adapt to new behaviors and needs of online shoppers and the role digital marketing plays in their journey. We have to add unique and novel value at all times. To thrive, we need to continuously experiment and innovate to be ahead of what’s new,” says our Founder and CEO, Udayan Bose.

Further Insights

Say no to average in the new year. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to stay up to date with your consumers’ rapid changes in online shopping behavior. Our AI-driven model predicts the likelihood of repeat buyers and churn rate to help you retain your customers and turn them into loyal brand friends.

• Could We See Cyber 5 Evolve Into Cyber 6?
• November 2021: Forecast vs Results
• Using Data to Guide Your Content

The post Week of December 26th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

The holiday season is almost over, but that doesn’t mean e-commerce sales will shutter. There’s still time for last-minute shoppers to place their orders and hastily pick up presents. Read on to find out what December’s penultimate week has in store for your brand!

December 19 to 25, 2021 Online Sales Summary

At the beginning of the week, we expect high e-commerce sales at over 12% growth YoY. Last-minute shoppers will drive these high sales through BOPIS and mobile orders. Inventory issues are likely to persist throughout this week, as last-minute shoppers seek to quickly fill up their carts and gather gifts for everyone. Be sure to keep your online inventory fully updated to streamline customers’ shopping experience. Consider offering alternatives for out-of-stock products to help your customers check off everyone on their lists.

Sales will slow at the end of the week, as the holiday season draws to a close. While sales will be minimal, your brand should stay active on social media. Ask customers to review your products and to share any photos of their gift exchanges. This user-generated content (UGC) can help you promote your best products of the year. Most importantly, you want to get customers excited for what will be new in 2022!

Keeping Your Customers Engaged

Authentic and inspiring content is more important now than ever before in keeping customers engaged. The marketing world has quickly evolved and expanded to include a myriad of media engagement points. Brands are fighting for their target shoppers’ attention across platforms like gaming, live streaming, podcasts, connected TV, and more. 

“Soaring media consumption options present multiple opportunities for marketers to ‘market and sell more’. However, with each media option addition the landscape becomes more and more complex to navigate,” says our Founder and CEO, Udayan Bose.

Creating a holistic understanding of your customer’s purchase journey is critical to meeting your shoppers at each and every touchpoint. From in-store analysis to website browsing to marketplaces and other shoppable media, a customer can find your brand and products through countless channels. The role of marketplaces is steadily growing, as Amazon grabbed a large share of online traffic during Cyber 5 weekend this year. Brands need compelling stories to make themselves memorable across the different avenues of engagement.

“The playing arena becomes much bigger and it is imminently possible that by 2025, store and owned website orders may account for less than 75% of all the customer purchases, from orders and conversions,” explains Bose. “Currently that number is 90%+ for most businesses.”

Further Insights

Say no to average this holiday season. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to share valuable information about your high-value customers’ purchase journey. We show the top products and time of day your high-value customers purchase, as well as predict churn rate and long-term average order value to help you maintain customer loyalty.

• Could We See Cyber 5 Evolve Into Cyber 6?
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy
• November 2021: Forecast vs Results

The post Week of December 19th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

The holiday season is wrapping up. While many shoppers got an early start to their shopping list this year, there are still plenty more who need to complete theirs. Keep a careful eye on how your customers’ online shopping behavior changes and stay agile to better anticipate their needs.

NetElixir’s Latest Holiday Forecast

Although we saw a lackluster Cyber 5 in terms of sales, overall sales between November and December so far have continued to prosper. Online orders increased 3.6% YoY between November 1st and the beginning of December, while online revenue has increased 3.8% YoY. Within this same time period, online sales have increased nearly 30% compared to 2019’s numbers. The pandemic has greatly the popularity of e-commerce — and it is a trend that is here to stay.

We estimate that 55%+ of all holiday shoppers have completed their holiday shopping — leaving about 45% of shoppers still in need of gifts. Shipping constraints, however, will continue to impact holiday shoppers and stores. Retailers with physical stores and marketplaces, especially Amazon, will benefit from these shipping constraints. As such, one out of approximately 5.5 American holiday shoppers will buy either from brick-and-mortar stores or Amazon between December 13th and Christmas Day. 

December 12 to 18, 2021 Online Sales Summary

Although a considerable portion of shoppers will rely on in-store and Amazon to finish their holiday shopping, plenty of other consumers are still turning to online shopping.

This week marks the cutoff for ground shipping — around December 14th. However, many brands have already announced earlier cutoff dates and cannot guarantee any holiday arrivals. The majority of e-commerce businesses will have 24-72 hours of e-commerce sales before they are forced to impose shipping cut-offs. Therefore, we expect very high growth, at an increase of  12% YoY for the beginning of this week, especially on Green Monday.

Green Monday is the second Monday in December and one of the busiest retail shopping days in the US. It’s the day when shoppers realize they only have around 10 shipping days left before Christmas Day. That sense of urgency translates into online sales, as consumers rush to complete their holiday shopping lists.

After December 14th, we expect to see a surge in BOPIS orders. As curbside pickup was a prominent feature of Black Friday sales, expect the trend to continue to grow the closer we get to the end of the holiday season. If your brand has BOPIS or curbside options, be sure to include that feature in your promotional copy. 

We expect many digital marketers to start decreasing their advertising budgets this week. Inventory issues are likely to persist and come to a head this week, so ensure your landing pages and ads contain the most up-to-date information regarding your products.

Make It Easy For Your Last-Minute Shoppers

Make holiday shopping easy for your last-minute customers! Consider creating a gift guide solely for last-minute shoppers with a few gift options for each person on their list so they can easily check everyone off. We expect customers may scramble to place their orders just before the last shipping date. Be sure to remind your customers about your brand’s last shipping date and share the latest deals they can snag just in time.

Mobile accounted for over 62% of online sales during Cyber 5 weekend — and over 75% of orders for the fashion and beauty industries! As such, ensure your mobile store is fully optimized and able to support a majority of your shoppers. We surmise that many of these orders may even happen while your customers are at your brick-and-mortar store. Social shopping will also play a critical role in driving mobile orders, so use your paid and organic social presence to promote items you have left in stock and share reviews to drive up last-minute orders.

“As our lives become increasingly digital, new business models will continue to emerge and new players will come and go. It is fascinating to take a step back and look at the past 10 years — the strategic moves made by various online giants and their impact on our lives today. Staying relevant in this complex and fast-evolving landscape is not easy,” surmises our Founder and CEO, Udayan Bose.

Staying relevant in this digital age means meeting your customers where and how they shop. Make it easy for your customers by understanding their needs and expectations and meeting them where they are, not where you think they should be.

Further Insights

Say no to average this holiday season. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to stay up to date with your consumers’ rapid changes in online shopping behavior. 

• Could We See Cyber 5 Evolve Into Cyber 6?
• November 2021: Forecasts vs Results
• Your 2021 SEO Strategy
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy

The post Week of December 12th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

NetElixir’s Latest Holiday Forecast

Towards the end of November, we saw the biggest gains in three categories: fashion and apparel, consumer electronics, and gifting (i.e., subscription boxes, stationery, flowers, etc.). Mobile sales rose dramatically during the beginning of November, accounting for 56% of all online orders compared to 50.5% last year. 

Earlier in the month of November, we saw trends of panic buying, especially within the fashion and apparel retail category. Conversion rates for apparel alone were up 40% YoY, compared to about 13% across categories. Latency (the time between first website visit and the final purchase) shrunk by 5% in November 2021 compared to 2020. Leading up to Cyber 5, customers shopped more frequently and quickly. 

During Cyber 5, however, customers converted at a lower rate than last year and did not buy as much. Weaker Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions may have discouraged shoppers.

December 5 – 11, 2021 Online Sales Summary

We may still see quick conversions at the beginning of this week, but expect conversions to drop slightly and latency to increase slightly; after the build-up to Cyber 5 weekend, customers will slow down again and look for gifting inspiration as they may plan more last-minute in-store shopping.

At the beginning of the week, we see very high online sales growth. We expect at least 12% YoY e-commerce growth on Sunday and Monday. Sales will drop throughout the rest of the week to less than 5% YoY growth. 

We expect some large retailers to test creative promotional strategies throughout this week. Watch out for big brands like Target and Walmart that may run unique promotions. Be prepared to capitalize on online traffic and run your own promotions. Midsize and smaller businesses will need to be nimble and be ready with their game plans. After a slower-than-anticipated Black Friday, retailers may need to reconfigure their holiday promotions to entice shoppers to continue buying. Larger retailers can afford to run sweeter promotions and since they’re winning market share, other brands should follow suit to stay competitive. 

Overview of Cyber 5 Results

Some highlights of the crucial holiday weekend include:

• Online sales fell 7% YoY
• Website visits YoY are relatively flat
• Weaker Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions may have turned away some customers
• Thanksgiving Day had the highest average order value (AOV)
• Shoppers are informed and prudent about their purchasing decisions and are willing to wait for a better deal
• CPCs are up 40%+ YoY for most retail categories
• Full-funnel marketing is more important now than ever before so strong branding throughout the year pays off during these critical online shopping periods

As consumer behavior is constantly evolving, it is important to continually check in with how and when your customers are searching and shopping online

Keeping an Active Digital Presence

Retailers have to make difficult choices in regards to their future holiday strategy. They can focus on driving up revenue by being more flexible with ROI cut-offs to preserve or gain market share. By continuing to focus more on ROI, brands risk sacrificing revenue and losing valuable market share. It is critical to be decisive; doing nothing is not an option.

Don’t let stockouts bog down your marketing strategy. Use this time to promote user-generated content of customers using and gifting your products. Take the time to gather reviews and conduct customer surveys to better inform your 2022 strategy. Invest in your brand strategy so you can be memorable to customers in the future. Consider showing off your employees and putting faces to the online interactions customers dealt with throughout the year. Just because you may not have product left to promote does not mean you should quiet your digital presence in the last days of the year. Build up your community, take the time to thank your customers for their support, and tease what they can expect in the new year!

Further Insights

Say no to average this holiday season. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to stay up to date with your consumers’ rapid changes in online shopping behavior. 

• Paid Search Holiday Tips
• Your 2021 SEO Strategy
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy

The post Week of December 5th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

Cyber Monday, coined in 2005, has quickly come to rival Black Friday in terms of deals, sales, and excitement. However, just as we discussed last week in regards to Black Friday, Cyber Monday may not always be about the best deal. Releasing a new product, reducing the free shipping minimum (or offering blanketed free shipping), and sharing exclusive giveaways can also help your brand to gain new customers and engage loyal customers. 

NetElixir’s Latest Holiday Forecast

We’re excited to see the big build-up for Cyber 5. It is significantly better than previously expected, as just a month back businesses were struggling with product shortages. Now, we see customers buying spending more and buying more frequently and quickly.

So far this month, online sales are trending at +11% YoY. The average order value is up 3% compared to November 2020. The conversion rate has increased 13% YoY compared to November 2020. A high CVR shows a greater propensity to buy. We believe that this growth in sales and a high CVR will continue throughout the rest of this month and the holiday season.

“In our previous holiday forecast of 6-7% YoY growth, we had underestimated the power of human desire to be free and to be together. We all yearned to be free and to be together with our family and friends — in person. The shopping and gifting surge that we are experiencing now in the US — much like the travel surge seen over the summer  — is an expression of our desire to be free,” summarizes Udayan Bose, NetElixir’s Founder and CEO.

November 28 to December 4, 2021 Online Sales Summary

NetElixir predicts continued strong e-commerce growth for this week. Cyber Sunday starts off with high growth and Cyber Monday will see very high growth — this is on top of a record-setting 2020 Cyber 5 weekend. Be sure you have adequate customer service support to address any issues shoppers may be facing. As ‘Newly-Online Nervous Nelly’ is expected to be one of several customer personas making an appearance this holiday season, you want to ensure all her online shopping questions are quickly answered to help her easily complete her holiday shopping. Additionally, ensure your paid media team is aligned with your logistics team to monitor any inventory updates

Giving Tuesday, a day of charity and generosity following Cyber 5 weekend, will continue to drive online momentum. NetElixir forecasts e-commerce growth of 5-12% higher than last year on Tuesday. As Giving Tuesday gains momentum and drives online activities through charitable promotions, we may eventually see Cyber 5 evolve into Cyber 6. It’s too early to tell how Giving Tuesday will impact the overall Cyber 5 weekend this year, but with more brands emphasizing their values and giving back to the community, it may become an important element of the holiday season. 

After the Cyber 5 boom, e-commerce sales will calm down slightly for the remainder of the week. We still expect to see growth compared to last year, but at a more subdued rate. Use this time to continue to get creative with category-level and product-specific promotions. Customers will still be searching for deals and gift ideas. With concerns over shipping delays and inventory shortages, next week may very well be one of the most strategically-important weeks of the season. Success for the week of December 5th starts with a good foundation this week. 

The Role of Gift Giving

Hanukkah starts this week. While we don’t anticipate Hanukkah to drive a significant portion of e-commerce sales, it is an important holiday to include in your marketing campaigns — and the messaging is crucial. Some families exchange gifts through these eight days and nights, but the holiday is more about spending quality time with loved ones. 

Online sales continue to soar as the holiday shopping frenzy intensifies. In some categories like apparel and consumer electronics, there are signs that “panic buying” has already set in. This is primarily due to the inventory stock-out challenges caused by supply chain disruptions. FOMO on that exclusive gift and not getting exactly what they want is a powerful purchase driver amongst holiday shoppers. 

“There are clear indications already that retailers are not going to be discounting as much as they normally do during this holiday season. Given the explosive increase in consumer demand, if you have the items in stock and if your brand is visible and relevant to your target market, consumers will buy,” Bose continues.

Further Insights

Say no to average this holiday season. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to stay up to date with your consumers’ rapid changes in online shopping behavior. 

To learn how your brand’s Cyber 5 results compared to your competitors and industry trends, register for our annual Cyber 5 Webinar: Results. Trends. Insights. We’ll break down the search-shop-buy behavior of your online customers throughout the crucial shopping days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. During this live webinar, our founder and CEO, Udayan Bose, will share insights into:

• State-wise e-commerce sales growth
• Most popular time of day when customers shopped
• Revenue share of new product segments

This webinar is part of our annual holiday offerings — which also includes our holiday e-commerce calendar — and 2021 marks our 13th annual holiday forecast.

• Paid Search Holiday Tips
• Your 2021 SEO Strategy
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy

The post Week of November 28th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

November 21 to 27, 2021 Online Sales Summary

NetElixir projects November 21st to 27th to be a strong week for e-commerce sales. We expect to see an increase of at least 12% YoY for Sunday and Monday. Sales will taper down slightly throughout the middle of the week in anticipation of the Black Friday explosion. 

While Black Friday will always be a hallmark of the holiday shopping season, it will no longer be contained to just one, doorbuster-filled day. Last year helped cement Black Friday as a season-long entity, with early Black Friday deals starting as early as October. The week-long Black Friday promotions are likely here for good, with both online and brick-and-mortar offerings. Each day leading up to Black Friday may feature its own specific product- or category-level deal. Store-wide deals are reduced, for now, in favor of limited-time daily deals intended to keep customers coming back.

2021 Black Friday Forecast

Last year, Black Friday saw an AOV of $174, within our dataset. Mobile contributed to just over 55% of sales during Black Friday 2020 (up 10% from 2019). This year, we expect mobile to continue to play an important role in how customers search and shop for deals. Use mobile-exclusive deals to drive impulse purchases.

After creative promotions kicked off an early start to the holiday shopping season, our marketing efforts culminate in Thanksgiving and Black Friday deals going live at the end of this week. Brands should get creative with their Black Friday and Cyber Monday-specific promotions, as well. While deep discounts are to be expected on Black Friday, other promotions can be just as valuable. As we saw in last week’s update, shoppers are willing to pay full price for products to have them now, rather than risk missing out on their top gift choice due to inventory shortages.

Black Friday deals don’t have to be limited to just one format. Consider leveraging other offers, such as a reduced free shipping minimum, launching new products, or exclusive giveaways with the purchase of a certain product. Different deals could help you stand out from the competition.

Further Insights

Holiday shopping has become a marathon, not a last-minute sprint. Over the course of your customers’ holiday shopping marathon, their wants, needs, expectations, and behavior will change. It is important to engage with your customers based on how they are acting in this moment. NetElixir is continually aggregating and analyzing our real-time e-commerce data using our customer analytics tool, LXRInsights, to stay updated with customers’ rapid changes in behavior. Remaining agile and nimble to seize any opportunity to engage shoppers is crucial to having a winning holiday season, especially during the highly competitive Black Friday season.

Register for our annual Cyber 5 Webinar: Results. Trends. Insights. During this webinar, we’ll break down the search-shop-buy behavior of your online customers throughout the crucial shopping days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. During this live webinar, our founder and CEO, Udayan Bose, will discuss:

• Day-by-day and hour-by-hour analysis of when your consumers searched and shopped throughout Cyber 5
• What the Cyber 5 trends mean for the rest of the holiday season
• How you can strengthen your marketing strategy for the rest of the holiday and post-holiday season

This webinar is part of our annual holiday offerings — which also includes our holiday e-commerce calendar — and 2021 marks our 13th annual holiday forecast.

• Paid Search Holiday Tips
• Your 2021 SEO Strategy
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy

The post Week of November 21st: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

NetElixir’s Latest Holiday Forecast

We have seen steady growth in online sales throughout October and the beginning of November. Within our own dataset of small- and medium-sized businesses, we have tracked the following sales growth across industries:

• September saw only a 3% YoY increase
• October 1st-15th saw a 15% YoY increase
• October 16th-31st saw a boom in sales, culminating in a 27% YoY increase
• November 1-8th so far has seen a 40% YoY increase

The online sales spike started around October 20th. Within the last week, we have seen that people are buying about 2% quicker than last year. Although that is a minute shift, it still speaks to the sense of urgency in shoppers. NetElixir is already seeing a 7-13% increase in AOV compared to last year. Customers are buying full-priced items, as they’d rather have their gifts now than risk not having anything. 

NetElixir’s Founder and CEO, Udayan Bose, says, “Gifting has become a means of freedom, almost, and a means of expression. We’re seeing people buying a lot more gifts right now, as a way to make up for the opportunities lost last year and missed celebrations. Gifting this year is almost like saying ‘I’m over with COVID, I’ve defeated COVID.’ People are buying more gifts to share with more people this year.”

In September, we predicted a 6-7% YoY growth in online sales for the holiday season. We made a conservative estimate based on subdued e-commerce growth in Q3 and a quiet back-to-school season. However, based on recent shifts in online shopping behavior, we are increasing our prediction to 12-13% YoY. This growth is on top of last year’s 33% increase from 2019.

Take a look at what we can expect for the upcoming week.

November 14 to 20, 2021 Online Sales Summary

The week of November 14th to 20th will start off with a projected 5-12% higher sales volume YoY, compared to the same days last year. The week will taper down slightly to more moderate growth of less than 5% YoY.

We saw a similar trend of more sales at the beginning of the week last year. Our FACES book breaks down the online shopping behavior of high-value customers across retail industries. In this year’s edition, we analyzed how consumer behavior evolved throughout the pandemic months. We track the customer journey of the high-value shoppers for nine retail e-commerce categories (B2B, Fashion and Jewelry, Home Furnishings, Baby Care, Pet Supplies, Beauty and Cosmetics, Gifting, Tactical Gear, DIY Tools, and Food and Gourmet). During the 2020 holiday season, starting in mid-November, six out of those nine high-value customers made most of their purchases on Mondays. 

In mid-November, ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, we are predicting major deep discounts and promotions from big and small brands alike. Retailers should look to get creative with category-level and product-specific promotions in order to stand out from the competition. It’s crucial to use this time to generate brand awareness and drum up excitement about your upcoming deals. 

Induce Early Shopping Behavior

Last year, 26% of shoppers finished their holiday shopping by the first week of November. Whether that holds true this year remains to be seen, but there are plenty of customers who need inspiration for their holiday shopping.

This year, with expected supply chain issues and inventory shortages, customers are expected (and in fact, encouraged) to complete their shopping sooner rather than later. By mid-November, customers are still searching and generating ideas for their holiday wishlists, so ensure your products are featured at the top of everyone’s list. Use holiday content gift guides to highlight products specifically for your Black Friday and Thanksgiving promotions, to get customers excited for the upcoming deals. 

The pandemic introduced new online shoppers to the e-commerce landscape, as well as reshaped many customer personas. Understanding your customers’ needs and expectations will help you craft more targeted and engaging ads. Speaking directly to your customers’ behavior will help ensure you stand out from the competition and win the right customer for your brand.

Further Insights

Online shopping behavior is constantly and rapidly changing. It is important for marketers to be in the moment to respond to their customers’ behavior. NetElixir is continually aggregating and analyzing our real-time e-commerce data using our customer analytics tool, LXRInsights. Remaining agile and nimble to seize any opportunity to engage shoppers is crucial to having a winning holiday season. 

This year marks our 13th annual holiday forecast and our holiday e-commerce calendar is a cornerstone of the forecast. We’re becoming known as the company with the calendar, so be sure to download your calendar to stay on top of daily updates and seize every opportunity within your industry.

• Insights Into The 2021 Holiday Season
• Your 2021 SEO Strategy
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy

The post Week of November 14th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

NetElixir forecasts slower than usual growth this holiday season, with a 6-7% YoY growth in e-commerce sales. While our predictions are more conservative than others, (eMarketer forecasts 14% YoY growth), a 6% increase on top of 2020’s 30%+ increase is no small feat. We estimate that this holiday season will bring in 500+ million unique website visitors across key holiday retail categories – gourmet food, fashion and apparel, home and décor, gifting, and consumer electronics.

A strong Q1, 2021 (34% YoY online sales growth) led many to forecast consistently strong and steady growth. That was not the case, as we saw a slower Q2 (about 5% YoY online sales growth) and a slower than anticipated back-to-school season (7% YoY online sales growth). With Q3 sales picking up more (about 19% YoY online sales growth) and we’re heading further into the holiday season, we see consumer interest is spread between a mix of categories. Fashion and beauty categories drove higher sales in Q2 and Q3, as shoppers sought to refresh their looks for traveling, dining, and other experiences they indulged in throughout the summer and warmer months. 

The pandemic has led to a massive surge in e-commerce, as online sales currently account for 19% of total retail sales (up from 14% in February 2020). Mobile traffic is driving more sales than ever before at 49%. We anticipate mobile shopping will be the primary sales channel this holiday season, contributing to 52% of total website sales.

 Key E-Commerce Channel Trends

It’s crucial to ensure your website is optimized for easy mobile searching and the holiday shopping season. However, other key e-commerce channels will also play an important role in shoppers’ online purchase journeys.

Amazon continues to increase its dominance on product searches: 74% of U.S. shoppers start their online search on Amazon. To appear on these searchers, we recommend optimizing your Amazon SEO. We anticipate that Amazon’s share of total online sales will cross 49% this holiday season. Fine-tune your Amazon growth strategy and use the platform as an extra distribution channel to introduce new customers to your brand. 

Beyond Amazon, other marketplaces are also growing rapidly. Instacart is expected to cross $1B in ad revenue next year. Placing ads strategically on high-traffic marketplaces can increase your brand awareness and exposure, though it is important to ensure your ads stand out amongst the competition.

Primary channels like Google, Microsoft Advertising, and Facebook are applying AI to help marketers target and engage customers more efficiently and at scale. We estimate that 50%+ of Google ad budgets are already being influenced by AI. 

Every business and channel is trying to understand how digital advertising will change with the demise of third-party cookies next year. The attributable revenue of Facebook ads has declined significantly since Apple’s iOS 14.5 update, which allows users to block tracking and data collection. 

Gathering valuable customer insights this holiday season will not only improve your performance this year but assist your post-holiday strategy in the cookieless world next year. During this uncertain and unpredictable holiday shopping season, real-time data and insights will be your guiding light.

What Makes This Holiday Season So Uncertain?

New Online Shopping Habits

The pandemic changed the online shopping landscape. Between altering customers’ personas based on what they value most, to bringing in over 7MM new-to-online shoppers, there are many new customers to engage. We estimate that 25% of the estimated 1.8MM new-to-online shoppers from 2020 will continue to shop online.

Last year, the pandemic-influenced holiday season brought a host of new-to-online shoppers to discover new brands and products. Those shoppers had no history with e-commerce and had unique trends, behaviors, and purchase journeys. We’ve had over a year to get to know these new shoppers and incorporate their consumer profiles into our overall marketing strategy. 

It’s not just new-to-online shoppers, though, whose changing habits require new strategies and tactics this season. Q2 e-commerce sales dropped YoY, as customers chose to spend their budgets on experiences and traveling rather than physical items. Our experts predict that these new shopping habits will continue through the holiday season. 

Your Holiday Strategy Tip: Consumer Insights

Be agile and flexible to your customers’ changing needs and expectations. Don’t be afraid to ask them directly what they want through surveys, social polls, and more. Use this time before the holiday frenzy kicks off to do A/B testing with social posts, ad graphics, and copy so you can get a better understanding of what makes your customers engage with your brand. These learnings can improve your holiday campaigns, as well as inform your 2022 strategy.

This holiday season, focus on simplifying your customers’ lives and giving them what they want.

Inventory Shortages

Many shoppers are getting an early start to the holiday season, in anticipation of growing supply chain disruptions. The increased demand during the post-pandemic recovery, paired with disruptions caused by geopolitical unrest have posed challenges for retailers and shoppers alike. Last year, 26% of shoppers completed their holiday shopping by the first week of November, reports NRF. We’re expecting an earlier start to the holiday season, but it’s still unknown just how many customers will stop shopping in early November. 

While some retailers can’t keep items on the shelves, others have an overflow of old inventory that hasn’t been selling. This makes a perfect opportunity for deep discounting on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. NetElixir can help showcase inventory surplus through gift guides and blogs that highlight the advantages and uses of these products. We’ll wrap them together with similar products for a similar target audience.

Your Holiday Strategy Tip: Communication

Ensure your holiday landing pages clearly communicate any changes in your inventory. Adding language like “selling fast” or “only a few left” will drive urgency in customers. If products are out of stock, direct customers to similar items or add them to an alert for when it’s back in stock. Add BOPIS options if stock returns closer to the holidays. 

Waning Consumer Confidence

Prevailing uncertainty caused a sharp drop in consumer confidence. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 13.4% from July, recording the least favorable economic prospects in more than a decade.

Consumers are switching brands primarily because they found a better value, according to McKinsey. Over 40% of consumers are also looking for what’s in stock. Being transparent with inventory, shipping delays, and deals will help customers trust your brand, even if overall consumer confidence is lacking.

Your Holiday Strategy Tip: Authenticity and Transparency

Humanize your brand to your customers so they know that there is a face that they can connect to. Connect with your customers on a personal level. Be transparent about any update or change that may impact a customer’s holiday shopping or package delivery.  

Building a Successful 2021 Holiday Strategy

The continuing supply chain challenges and low consumer sentiment pose a massive challenge for businesses. Competition is intense and uncertainty is high this season. Nimbleness and quick decision-making will differentiate the successes this holiday season. Have a plan B ready to stay ahead of changing variables and take advantage of any opportunities that come your way.

Your customers are your most important element this holiday season. By gathering better customer insights, you can target more effectively, thus wasting fewer ad dollars and getting better ROIs. Maximize your holiday performance with customer insights.

“This month, so far, has seen strengthening of online sales in some categories (namely, consumer electronics, apparel, and home improvement). If the online sales trends continue (and businesses can at least partially address the inventory issues), we will have a stronger than expected holiday season. Also, as the threat posed by the delta variant continues to diminish, holiday sales are likely to be positively impacted,” summarizes Udayan Bose, NetElixir’s Founder and CEO.

Further Reading

• Your 2021 Holiday SEO Strategy
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy
• NetElixir’s E-Commerce Holiday Calendar
• Holiday Kit

The post Insights Into the 2021 Holiday Season and E-Commerce Trends appeared first on NetElixir.

NetElixir is here to ensure your 2021 holiday strategy is ready to jingle with our Holiday Readiness Kit. 

Develop Your Holiday E-Commerce Strategy

NetElixir’s Holiday Opportunity and Risk Management Kit will get you in the holiday spirit with the following resources to help guide your planning. 

Holiday Sales E-Commerce Calendar

Since 2008, NetElixir has aggregated and analyzed historical e-commerce data, back-to-school sales, holiday trends, and more to develop our Holiday Sales E-Commerce Calendar. This calendar marks the anticipated online sales volume of crucial days throughout the holiday season to help marketers better adjust their budget and campaign strategy. Learn when to run your most attractive holiday promotions in order to capture customer demand and when to pivot to BOPIS options to keep last-minute customers engaged.

Personalized Holiday Consultations

Once you have your holiday calendar and begin planning your promotions, request a personalized one-on-one consultation with NetElixir’s holiday experts. During your consultation, we’ll review:

• Where you align with industry benchmarks
• How you compare to competitors
• Gap analysis and growth opportunities for your brand
• Shopping behaviors and patterns of your category’s high-value customer
• Holiday readiness best practices and actionable insights

Don’t miss out on valuable insights. Request your customized consultation now for free insights into your brand.

Exclusive Deals on Holiday Solutions

Treat your brand to an early gift with NetElixir’s exclusive Holiday Packs to wrap up your Content, Design, and SEO holiday offerings. Starting at just $500 each, our Holiday Packs help maximize your website conversions and attract and engage new customers by increasing your brand awareness.

Our Content Gift Guides are 700-word blogs that highlight five to eight products or product categories. These gift guides help you build a bigger content basket, spark brand loyalty, and share your brand story. Request your gift guide now to capture the attention of consumers who are already researching holiday gift ideas.

The SEO Holiday Readiness Audit will help ensure your holiday landing pages are fully optimized so shoppers can easily navigate through your best holiday deals. Our SEO experts will also conduct a user experience audit and holiday-specific keyword research for your brand, as well as review up to ten meta descriptions, up to 25 pages for H1s and minor copy editing, and targeted product package Google My Business posts. Get your SEO audit done early so search engine spiders have time to crawl and index your page prior to the holiday shopping rush.

With our Design Services Holiday Pack, we will design branded graphics for display, discovery, social, and Amazon ads so yor brand will look its best. Our Design services also include updates to your company’s Facebook page with customized badges and frames, photo retouching, and avatar and icon creation. All of NetElixir’s design projects come with free A/B testing so you can better understand what makes your customers click.

Learn more about which pack is right for you.

Holiday Readiness Webinars

Want the latest scoop on 2021 holiday shopping predictions, e-commerce insights, and holiday readiness strategies? Join NetElixir’s Holiday Readiness Webinars to learn more about:

• The key online consumer shopping trends that will impact holiday shopping.
• Strategies to keep the new-to-online customers you gained last year engaged with your brand.
• Our predictions for prominent holiday trends.
• Tips to navigate this uncertain season and how to create backup strategies.

Join us on Tuesday, September 21st for our Holiday Predictions Webinar. Later in the season, we’ll recap the successes and learnings of Cyber 5 (the days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) and provide actionable insights for a final drive for holiday success.

What Makes the 2021 Holiday Season So Uncertain?

Brands have had an uneven 18 months and are looking forward to the holiday season with optimism as well as some anxiety. The 2021 holiday season may very well qualify as one of the most unpredictable seasons yet. Retailers are optimistic about the season due to pent-up consumer demand, as well as a good balance between personal savings rate and consumption dollars. However, there are still concerns around the delta variant and how different regions could be impacted, which could then affect the e-commerce turnout. There’s a sense of cautious optimism for the 2021 holiday season.

E-Commerce Sales Have Been Sporadic

A strong Q1 (34% Y/Y online sales growth, according to NetElixir’s dataset) led many to forecast an equally strong Q2 in terms of revenue. However, consumers spent more on travel and experiences rather than items during Q2, leading to a decrease in sales. Online sales only grew about 5% Y/Y in Q2 2021. Fashion and beauty Categories have done well in Q2 and the beginning of Q3. However, other categories have either exhibited moderate or no Y/Y growth.

However, as the winter approaches, consumers may revert back to spending their budget on products again, as the weather keeps them from traveling. There are opportunities to have your products tie into experiences with the right packaging and produect description, so be sure to consider how your goods can best be marketed to different groups of consumers.

Back-to-School Sales Are Uneven

Historically, back-to-school sales have been a strong indicator of holiday season trends and demand. The demand spike started later this year (early August), but because this is a unique back-to-school season, we have yet to see the full impact the season will have on holiday sales. Within NetElixir’s dataset, the back-to-school season only yielded about 7% Y/Y growth in online sales.

Early Holiday Season

Did you know that Hanukkah falls during the Cyber 5 weekend this year? A significant portion of shoppers could be looking for deals and gift inspiration before Black Friday even begins, so it’s best to be prepared as early as possible.

According to Google’s research, 80% of consumers expect holiday promotions this year. As such, consumers will be on the lookout for the best deals and will be searching around for products that best fit their needs and budget. Ensure your holiday landing pages and exclusive deals are prominently displayed on your website and consider adding a countdown timer for when the deals expire to drive a sense of urgency in your shoppers.

Another Prime Day?

Last year’s Prime Day sales event, held in October, shifted and accelerated the holiday online shopping season. Amazon could choose to host another Prime Day in October to bolster the lackluster sales from this year’s June event.

Geographic Fluctuations

As the Delta variant of COVID-19 continues to spread, we could see surges in e-commerce demand in cities with higher cases. Brands cannot adopt a uniform approach to their sales outreach; instead, marketing strategies should be sensitive to the different situations in each target region. We are in the process of developing a live tracker that analyzes the correlation between online orders, reported active COVID-19 cases, and state’s vaccination rates to monitor these geographic fluctuations and their impact. 

How NetElixir Can Help Your Holiday Readiness Strategy

NetElixir is here to help you make sense of all the uncertainty so you can succeed this holiday season and beyond. Ensure you have the latest data and trends so your marketing decisions are crystal clear. Browse our resources to develop your holiday strategy and have a back-up plan to remain nimble and agile, all powered by NetElixir’s latest insights.

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