NetElixir’s Holiday Forecast: 9% YoY growth this year.

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2023 Holiday Trends Marketers Should Know

Securing Attractive Deals

Customers are deal-hunting this season so keep promotions rolling. Consider discounting a different product or product category each week to entice customers to return to your brand. To encourage more units per order, leverage hyper-personalization and AI on top product and category pages and frequent nudges to influence shopping behavior.

We’re seeing a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings and the highest every point of outstanding credit balances; there is not as much cash flow as customers had in prior years, so they will be extra vigilant about securing the best deal and sticking to a budget. Keep an eye on different trends to ensure your product portfolio is evolving, relevant, and in line with changing customer preferences.

Recent Online Sales Boost

Since the latter half of August, NetElixir has noted upward trending online sales. Back-to-school sales have been fairly strong and are always a good indicator of how holiday sales will fare. The holidays may continually show a demand spike around sales events before a significant post-holiday slump. Sales events, like Amazon’s second Prime Day (Early Access) trigger a surge in demand, but also see a significant, post-event sales drop. Keep promotions consistent to balance out early holiday shopping and the long-term bargain hunters.

Role of Mobile

The role of mobile in searches and orders is only growing. Between comparison checks with other online offers while browsing in store, downloading apps for exclusive deals, mobile-only offers, and simple convenience, people are opting to shop from their mobile phone more often. Categories like beauty and apparel have seen the most notable rise of mobile orders within NetElixir’s dataset.

Expanding Customer Journey

So many factors, influences, and touchpoints go into every purchase, so it is important for brands to be wherever their customers are searching and shopping. We expect marketplaces and retail media to account for 55-58% of total online holiday sales this year. TikTok emerged as 2022’s hottest advertising channel, rivaling Google and Meta, so we expect the social commerce trend to continue.

As 2023 is the first truly AI-powered holiday season, it is important for brands to leverage AI to create hyper personalized content to engage with customers and nudge them along the funnel.

What We Learned From The 2022 Holiday Season

Key e-commerce trends from the 2022 holiday season include:

• Customers are increasingly savvy shoppers — if sales were not up to their expectations, they did not make a purchase.
• The holiday season is only expanding. Customers are getting headstarts on their shopping with lucrative deals in September and October in hopes of avoiding inventory issues and stretching their budget to cover bigger gifts. The second Amazon Prime Day (Early Access) in October has become a new norm to kickstart holiday shopping.
  
• Performance Max campaigns accounted for 48% of paid search orders during Cyber 5 2022 and will continue to play a crucial role in brands’ advertising strategy.
• Flexible financing options, such as BNPL and BOPIS, drove a high percentage of last-minute sales as customers liked the assurance of having the perfect gift now.

A Breakdown Of NetElixir’s 2023 Holiday E-Commerce Forecast

We feel cautiously optimistic going into the 2023 holiday season.

For the week of November 12th, we predict strong teaser promotions spurred by sales events leading into Black Friday and the rest of Cyber 5. These teaser promotions and previews will be the next step from pre-holiday promotions that began in September and October to get people excited about their Black Friday must-have lists.

We foresee Black Friday promotions beginning the Monday before Thanksgiving on November 19th. As we saw last year during Cyber 5, (which starts on Thanksgiving Day and lasts until Cyber Monday), we expect week-long Black Friday deals that highlight a specific product or category each day. We believe the trend of deep discounting will continue throughout the entire week and that brands will get creative with their specific promotions to keep customers engaged.

The last week of November and first week of December will be highly competitive; however, there will be ample opportunities to capture consumer demand, so a powerful marketing strategy — as well as a backup plan to stay agile — will be necessary. Some large retailers may test creative promotional strategies this week or run special mini-holiday deals of their own. Smaller businesses will need to remain nimble and be ready with their game plans to seize any opportunities they can. 

During the week of December 10th, we expect BNPL (buy-now-pay-later) models to continue to be a prime driver of online growth. BNPL started to pick up traction in the beginning of the year and we expect momentum to continue with a 20-25% increase in BNPL compared to H1 2023.

The week of December 17th, a day or two before the last shipping day, will most likely see a rise in BOPIS commerce. Many retailers will begin lowering their ad spend this week to better ensure online orders arrive in time for Christmas morning. However, this could be a time for smaller brands to promote their BOPIS options or brick-and-mortar offerings, so be sure to showcase every advantage your store has and leverage the greater online activity inspired by big brand deals and last-minute frenzies. However, inventory issues are likely to persist this week as many retailers stocked up early; be sure to keep your website updated with what you have in stock and offer alternatives for popular sold out items.

Finally, deep discounts on post-holiday inventory will influence the “Me-Buy” week following Christmas and leading up to New Year’s Day. Consider changing your promotional language to highlight your sales and cater to your high-value customers’ self interest.

Methodology Behind Our E-Commerce Forecast

Since 2013, NetElixir has been releasing our E-Commerce Holiday Calendar to forecast the day-by-day online sales volume to help marketers create an effective holiday strategy. We aggregate and analyze weekly data of website visits, website sales, channel-wise investments, and CPC data across different retail industries within our dataset. We track this data throughout the year, segregating based on device, and compare it to the previous years’ week-wise key metrics. Using our proprietary AI-powered customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights, to track and analyze the real-time weekly data.

The post NetElixir’s Complete Guide To The 2023 Holiday Season appeared first on NetElixir.

Key e-commerce metrics from October include:

• Gifting sales are up 5% YoY after lagging behind 2021 numbers at the beginning of the year
• Beauty, women’s apparel and accessories, and food and grocery are all trending upward this year
• Total October Online YoY Sales: Gifting: +5%, Beauty: +17%, Women’s Apparel: +7%, Food: +15% 

Customers are starting their holiday shopping early, as well as preparing for holiday celebrations and get-togethers. We forecast continued growth, especially within the above categories, throughout the months of November and into December. Our 2022 holiday e-commerce sales forecast calendar, which helps marketers plan their day-by-day promotions, kicks off this week, on Sunday, November 13. Use our guide to plan your best promotions in anticipation of high sales days. 

“Online holiday sales have strengthened since the middle of October for many categories,” says Udayan Bose, Founder and CEO of NetElixir. “Consumer preference has shifted towards ‘value-shopping’. Also, consumers are in an always-on shopping mode, scouring for deals and prices that meet their personal value perceptions.”

How To Optimize Your Holiday Marketing Strategy

If you’re looking to put the finishing touches on your holiday strategy, our experts recently shared some last-minute holiday hacks. In terms of SEO, it’s important to build authority for your holiday pages. To retain your authority for holiday pages year after year, keep your URLs specific to each promotional campaign (i.e.example.com/black-friday-sales or example.com/cyber-monday-deals) and don’t change your URL for each year. Add specificity to your H1 tags. Use top of funnel pages to link to promotional pages and consider adding countdowns to your biggest sales or temporary 302 redirects to direct from your homepage directly to promotional pages.

For your content strategy, highlight your sales and deals with a sense of urgency; customers are driven by discounts and studies have found that customers are willing to share their personal information in exchange for a coupon. Label your deals clearly in your ads and be mindful of timing and out of stock items; nothing is more frustrating to a customer than clicking on an ad only to find that the deal expired or the item is no longer available. For your campaign strategy, optimize your RSAs and Performance Max campaigns to reach across the entire Google ecosystem. RSAs offer fifteen headers and four descriptions – use all the space you can to maximize your potential of reaching the right customer. Enhance your campaign performance with our Google Scripts, which allow you to automate certain aspects of your campaigns so you can focus on what’s important. 

Be sure you build your brand all year long by writing organic content that will help people find what they’re looking for. Even as we’re just getting into the 2022 holiday season, remember it’s not too early to think about your 2023 holiday season! 

NetElixir’s Holiday Forecast

Overall, our holiday growth forecast for the season remains at 7% YoY.

We have been accurately tracking holiday e-commerce sales forecasts for 10+ years. We leverage our proprietary AI-driven digital marketing technology, LXRInsights, to track and analyze real-time data of approximately 75 retail customers, ranging from small-to-mid sized businesses to enterprises. The team then utilized a proprietary forecasting model to convert the data into predictions. Data collection spanned seven e-commerce categories (including apparel, home furnishings, beauty, and more) that track mobile and desktop data, broken down by state, website orders and revenue, AOV, first purchase latency, and repeat purchase latency. 

Current forecasts are subject to change. We shared their full results, trend analysis, and more during a webinar. The webinar, titled Last-Minute Holiday Strategy & Resources for Retailers can be viewed here.

Sign up for our upcoming event, Cyber 5 Webinar: Results. Insights. Trends. to understand how the key online shopping metrics changed throughout this critical period.

Further Reading

• NetElixir’s Complete Guide to the 2022 Holiday Season
• Google’s Helpful Content Update: A Recap For Content Creators
• What’s Trending? The Importance of Trend Research in Your Marketing Strategy

The post New Insights Into the 2022 Holiday Season appeared first on NetElixir.

Meet Demand for Tasty Treats and Scary Tricks

No one likes running out of candy on Halloween when there are trick-or-treaters at the door, and retailers are no different. With the return to pre-pandemic habits, demand for candy, costumes, decorations, and other Halloween items is likely to be high. Make sure you have enough stock on hand going into the pre-holiday rush (and some leftovers for the day-after sales). You don’t want to leave customers out in the cold by not ordering in time to avoid being affected by the Hershey candy shortage. Supply chain issues are ongoing, so plan ahead when purchasing. 

Stay On-Trend with Product Choices 

It’s not enough to be fully-stocked with any old Halloween products. Your business needs to carry the goodies your customers want for their Halloween festivities. When it comes to costumes, look to movies and TV! The upcoming Barbie movie starring Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling is inspiring looks like pink bodysuits, leg warmers, and fanny packs. You’re certain to spot costumes for characters from Stranger Things season 4 when you’re out trick-or-treating, and the new movie, “Halloween Ends” and the remake of 1987’s “Hellraiser” are driving classic horror movie nostalgia. And you can’t go wrong with evergreen popular costumes like Spiderman and other superheroes, princesses, witches, and ghosts. 

When it comes to decorations, consumers are keeping it spooky with both DIY and store-bought products. TikTok is inspiring Halloween enthusiasts; the floating candles look is a popular trend. Those who go all-out for a spine-tingling lawn display might consider going big with 12-foot lawn skeletons or spiders, or pursuing a twist on traditional graveyard displays with animal skeletons. Party hosts will get into the action with serpent and skeleton-themed glassware when they’re serving popular candy corn-flavored treats like Jello shots, ice pops, and cake pops.

Create Spooky – and Up-to-Date – Content to Drive Traffic

Be sure to promote trending costumes and products on your e-commerce site and make sure your product descriptions for related items include language that connects to those trends. If you run out of stock for a popular item, or experience shipping delays, update your listings to reflect that and avoid customer frustration. To draw customers to your site, spark interest in your brand and products, and convert shoppers to buyers. Get creative with your content to feature thematic recipes, costume ideas, and home decor if it relates to your brand. Leverage user-generated content on your site and social media accounts that showcase your products in frightful action.

Work with NetElixir

Halloween doesn’t have to be terrifying when it comes to digital marketing! NetElixir is here to help you with everything from content creation, SEO, and analytics to ensure your business is ready for Halloween. Contact us today to get started on a digital marketing strategy that will set your e-commerce business up for success through spooky season and beyond.  

Further Reading

• Christmas in May: Your Holiday Strategy in the Cookieless World
• Less Tricks and More Treats This Halloween
• Optimize Your SEO Strategy for Valentine’s Day

The post Tricks, Treats, and Trends: Getting in the Halloween Spirit appeared first on NetElixir.

Deck the Halls Early with a Review of 2022 and a Web Refresh 

We can’t expect 2022’s holiday season to look exactly like 2021 – or 2020, or any pre-pandemic holiday season. But you can prepare your business for the unexpected by reviewing what challenges you faced last year and what tools and strategies might minimize disruption this year. While there has been an increase in first-time shoppers due to the pandemic, companies such as grocery stores that jumped on the online boom have found their margins challenged as the market shrunk. Businesses should innovate while staying focused on long-term sustainability and profitability.

E-commerce sales fluctuations have become the new norm, and in 2021 that meant that for the first time in over a decade, sales on Cyber Monday were less than those on Black Friday. We expect that customers will start their holiday shopping earlier, with planned, considered purchases that account for inflation and the supply chain slowdowns that continue to affect business. As patterns become harder to predict, the deprecation of third-party cookies means your business will need to find new ways to track customer behavior and report and analyze trends to notice fluctuations and react accordingly.

Has it been a while since your e-commerce site had a refresh? Whether your branding and content are out-of-date or your site could benefit from updated tech and a new e-commerce platform, now is a great time to think about user experience and web development and creating a frictionless journey for your customers. Consider supplementing your online presence by entering marketplaces like Amazon. Amazon and other marketplaces are likely to attract more holiday shoppers than DTC sites with discounts and early holiday deals.

Make Your Holiday (Customer) Lists and Check Them Twice with Google Analytics 4 and First-Party Data

If you haven’t already made the move to Google Analytics 4 (GA4), don’t wait any longer. Universal Analytics (UA) and Universal Analytics 360 properties will be fully phased out by October 1, 2023, and historical data for 2022, which is only held for 6 months, will be gone. By having GA4 up and running before the holidays, your business will be ready to track the important October, November, and December search-shop-buy behaviors that will inform your strategy not only this season but for years into the future. 

With third-party cookies disappearing, finding new ways to connect to customers and capture first-party data is critical to your business’s success. Use this time to create a loyalty program that will bring your customers closer to your brand and to find other ways to drive the customer recognition and connection that will encourage users to trust you with their data. Brands should consider investing in an  in-house insight labs or working with digital marketing partners to experiment with different strategies to reveal patterns and discover which strategic moves deliver the best outcomes.  

Create a Data-Informed Holiday Digital Marketing Strategy

With uncertainty a certain feature of holiday shopping this year, it’s never too early to plan for difficulties or opportunities that might arise. By taking the time to build out customer personas and develop SEO-optimized holiday content, when the unexpected happens (and it will!), you will have a back-up strategy that can be adapted to fit new circumstances and will avoid having to start from scratch. Save time and reduce holiday stress by designing contingency plans now, including messaging, for potential supply issues and other disruptions that might impact holiday buying and shipping in the months ahead.

Ready to Plan for Holiday Shopping? NetElixir is Here to Help.

At NetElixir, we are here for your business at every stage of your holiday planning. Whether your e-commerce site needs a facelift or an overhaul, whether you need help getting started with GA4 or a full-on support with track and reporting, we are here to support you as you prepare for the holiday shopping season. We’ll work with you on all your digital marketing strategy needs, from optimizing SEO to developing customer personas that help you reach your high-value customers and implementing the brand loyalty programs that will inform your content and campaign planning.

Additional Reading

• Our e-book: Preparing for a Cookieless World
• 2021 Holiday Readiness Resources

The post Christmas in May: Your Holiday Strategy in the Cookieless World appeared first on NetElixir.

December 26 to 31, 2021 2022 Online Sales Summary

We anticipate moderate growth in e-commerce sales during the beginning of the workweek of December 26th. We forecast moderate growth of around 5% YoY Monday through Wednesday. E-Commerce sales will be primarily driven through post-holiday discounts to clear leftover merchandise.

At NetElixir, we consider this the “Me-Buy” week. Customers buy discounted gifts for themselves to either combat not getting what they wanted over the holidays or to treat themselves after shopping exclusively for others. However, as we saw during Cyber 5, if sales are not up to customer expectations, they most likely will not make a purchase.

Sales growth will flatten during the end of the week, as customers gear up for New Year’s celebrations.

What Can We Expect In 2022?

As we approach the new year, our CEO and Founder, Udayan Bose, has shared his 2022 Trends & Insights. A few key takeaways are:

• E-commerce sales fluctuations are becoming the new constant.
• Brands will adjust strategies to align with third-party cookie deprecation.
• Retailers should invest in building in-house insights labs.

Having a growth mindset is the most critical factor in succeeding next year. While 2021 has been a turbulent and often unexpected year, an agile marketing strategy and growth mindset allow us to create new opportunities as they arise. As the e-commerce landscape continually evolves to changes in consumer behavior and expectations, brands need to evolve too. 

Brands need a holistic approach to their e-commerce business growth model instead of a strict channel-level focus. Your customer does not interact with your brand through only one channel. Customers discover your brand through a myriad of channels, from the standard digital marketing avenues of search and social to newer mediums like streaming and connected TVs. Consider the entirety of your customer’s purchase journey to meet them where they are. A holistic brand strategy across each channel will help customers connect with and recognize your brand.

Engage your audiences with authentic and inspiring stories. Customers respond to your brand for a reason. Provide them value at every turn to keep them engaged and to attract new users. It is easier to market to friends instead of strangers, so carefully monitor fluctuations in the shopping behavior of your key customer profiles. With a strong retention strategy, you can build a loyal customer base.

“Through the new year, we have to continually evolve our growth strategy. It is essential to adapt to new behaviors and needs of online shoppers and the role digital marketing plays in their journey. We have to add unique and novel value at all times. To thrive, we need to continuously experiment and innovate to be ahead of what’s new,” says our Founder and CEO, Udayan Bose.

Further Insights

Say no to average in the new year. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to stay up to date with your consumers’ rapid changes in online shopping behavior. Our AI-driven model predicts the likelihood of repeat buyers and churn rate to help you retain your customers and turn them into loyal brand friends.

• Could We See Cyber 5 Evolve Into Cyber 6?
• November 2021: Forecast vs Results
• Using Data to Guide Your Content

The post Week of December 26th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

The holiday season is almost over, but that doesn’t mean e-commerce sales will shutter. There’s still time for last-minute shoppers to place their orders and hastily pick up presents. Read on to find out what December’s penultimate week has in store for your brand!

December 19 to 25, 2021 Online Sales Summary

At the beginning of the week, we expect high e-commerce sales at over 12% growth YoY. Last-minute shoppers will drive these high sales through BOPIS and mobile orders. Inventory issues are likely to persist throughout this week, as last-minute shoppers seek to quickly fill up their carts and gather gifts for everyone. Be sure to keep your online inventory fully updated to streamline customers’ shopping experience. Consider offering alternatives for out-of-stock products to help your customers check off everyone on their lists.

Sales will slow at the end of the week, as the holiday season draws to a close. While sales will be minimal, your brand should stay active on social media. Ask customers to review your products and to share any photos of their gift exchanges. This user-generated content (UGC) can help you promote your best products of the year. Most importantly, you want to get customers excited for what will be new in 2022!

Keeping Your Customers Engaged

Authentic and inspiring content is more important now than ever before in keeping customers engaged. The marketing world has quickly evolved and expanded to include a myriad of media engagement points. Brands are fighting for their target shoppers’ attention across platforms like gaming, live streaming, podcasts, connected TV, and more. 

“Soaring media consumption options present multiple opportunities for marketers to ‘market and sell more’. However, with each media option addition the landscape becomes more and more complex to navigate,” says our Founder and CEO, Udayan Bose.

Creating a holistic understanding of your customer’s purchase journey is critical to meeting your shoppers at each and every touchpoint. From in-store analysis to website browsing to marketplaces and other shoppable media, a customer can find your brand and products through countless channels. The role of marketplaces is steadily growing, as Amazon grabbed a large share of online traffic during Cyber 5 weekend this year. Brands need compelling stories to make themselves memorable across the different avenues of engagement.

“The playing arena becomes much bigger and it is imminently possible that by 2025, store and owned website orders may account for less than 75% of all the customer purchases, from orders and conversions,” explains Bose. “Currently that number is 90%+ for most businesses.”

Further Insights

Say no to average this holiday season. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to share valuable information about your high-value customers’ purchase journey. We show the top products and time of day your high-value customers purchase, as well as predict churn rate and long-term average order value to help you maintain customer loyalty.

• Could We See Cyber 5 Evolve Into Cyber 6?
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy
• November 2021: Forecast vs Results

The post Week of December 19th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

The holiday season is wrapping up. While many shoppers got an early start to their shopping list this year, there are still plenty more who need to complete theirs. Keep a careful eye on how your customers’ online shopping behavior changes and stay agile to better anticipate their needs.

NetElixir’s Latest Holiday Forecast

Although we saw a lackluster Cyber 5 in terms of sales, overall sales between November and December so far have continued to prosper. Online orders increased 3.6% YoY between November 1st and the beginning of December, while online revenue has increased 3.8% YoY. Within this same time period, online sales have increased nearly 30% compared to 2019’s numbers. The pandemic has greatly the popularity of e-commerce — and it is a trend that is here to stay.

We estimate that 55%+ of all holiday shoppers have completed their holiday shopping — leaving about 45% of shoppers still in need of gifts. Shipping constraints, however, will continue to impact holiday shoppers and stores. Retailers with physical stores and marketplaces, especially Amazon, will benefit from these shipping constraints. As such, one out of approximately 5.5 American holiday shoppers will buy either from brick-and-mortar stores or Amazon between December 13th and Christmas Day. 

December 12 to 18, 2021 Online Sales Summary

Although a considerable portion of shoppers will rely on in-store and Amazon to finish their holiday shopping, plenty of other consumers are still turning to online shopping.

This week marks the cutoff for ground shipping — around December 14th. However, many brands have already announced earlier cutoff dates and cannot guarantee any holiday arrivals. The majority of e-commerce businesses will have 24-72 hours of e-commerce sales before they are forced to impose shipping cut-offs. Therefore, we expect very high growth, at an increase of  12% YoY for the beginning of this week, especially on Green Monday.

Green Monday is the second Monday in December and one of the busiest retail shopping days in the US. It’s the day when shoppers realize they only have around 10 shipping days left before Christmas Day. That sense of urgency translates into online sales, as consumers rush to complete their holiday shopping lists.

After December 14th, we expect to see a surge in BOPIS orders. As curbside pickup was a prominent feature of Black Friday sales, expect the trend to continue to grow the closer we get to the end of the holiday season. If your brand has BOPIS or curbside options, be sure to include that feature in your promotional copy. 

We expect many digital marketers to start decreasing their advertising budgets this week. Inventory issues are likely to persist and come to a head this week, so ensure your landing pages and ads contain the most up-to-date information regarding your products.

Make It Easy For Your Last-Minute Shoppers

Make holiday shopping easy for your last-minute customers! Consider creating a gift guide solely for last-minute shoppers with a few gift options for each person on their list so they can easily check everyone off. We expect customers may scramble to place their orders just before the last shipping date. Be sure to remind your customers about your brand’s last shipping date and share the latest deals they can snag just in time.

Mobile accounted for over 62% of online sales during Cyber 5 weekend — and over 75% of orders for the fashion and beauty industries! As such, ensure your mobile store is fully optimized and able to support a majority of your shoppers. We surmise that many of these orders may even happen while your customers are at your brick-and-mortar store. Social shopping will also play a critical role in driving mobile orders, so use your paid and organic social presence to promote items you have left in stock and share reviews to drive up last-minute orders.

“As our lives become increasingly digital, new business models will continue to emerge and new players will come and go. It is fascinating to take a step back and look at the past 10 years — the strategic moves made by various online giants and their impact on our lives today. Staying relevant in this complex and fast-evolving landscape is not easy,” surmises our Founder and CEO, Udayan Bose.

Staying relevant in this digital age means meeting your customers where and how they shop. Make it easy for your customers by understanding their needs and expectations and meeting them where they are, not where you think they should be.

Further Insights

Say no to average this holiday season. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to stay up to date with your consumers’ rapid changes in online shopping behavior. 

• Could We See Cyber 5 Evolve Into Cyber 6?
• November 2021: Forecasts vs Results
• Your 2021 SEO Strategy
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy

The post Week of December 12th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

Summary of November 2021

How did our November forecast compare with our results?

For our initial holiday forecast released in September, we conservatively projected a 6-7% YoY for all holiday sales. In mid-November, as sales started to spike upwards of 40% YoY within the first week, conversion rates increased 13% YoY, and latency dropped by 2%, we grew more optimistic; as such, we upped our overall holiday forecast to 12-13%. 

A slower-than-anticipated Cyber 5 resulted in a decrease of 7% YoY for e-commerce sales. This loss dropped the total November sales growth within our dataset to just over 2.6%. Overall, it was a lackluster weekend. Nearly all channels dropped in YoY revenue, including email marketing, which is typically a highly reliable means to engage with existing customers. 

While our holiday calendar day-by-day predictions fell short of actual results, our forecast had anticipated better deals. When faced with subpar discounts, many customers opted not to purchase. We also did not expect consumers to get such an early start to their shopping; sales in early November were much higher than expected. We had assumed that, similiar to last year, Cyber 5 deals would release pent-up demand to shop and continue the e-commerce surge. 

As we predicted, there were strong sales leading up to Black Friday. Black Friday has transformed from one-day doorbuster extravaganzas to week-long online deals on specific products and categories. As such, the promotions offered on the day of Black Friday itself may have ultimately underwhelmed shoppers who were expecting deeper discounts. While strong teaser promotions helped boost sales for an early holiday shopping season, they lessened the impact of Cyber 5.

However, according to a survey done by McKinsey, 45% of their respondents started their holiday shopping in October, with 31% of those early shoppers completing more than 75% of their gifting. The survey found that only 11% of respondents plan to start their shopping in December, compared to pre-pandemic numbers of over 25%. We estimate that 30% of consumers had already completed their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving Day, thus negating the need to shop during Cyber 5.

All told, we will most likely still see strong holiday sales, but over a longer, more drawn-out time period. One day of sales will not tell the whole story of how, when, and why your customers are searching and shopping online.

Cyber 5 Results

Within our dataset, powered by LXRInsights, Cyber Monday sales were comparable to Black Friday sales. This is the first time that Cyber Monday sales have not exceeded Black Friday’s in over a decade! 

We thought the strong growth at the end of October and early November would continue throughout Cyber 5. However, weaker Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions may have discouraged shoppers. Unattractive sales coupled with an earlier start to the holiday season led to a disappointing and unexpectedly low Cyber 5 weekend.

Evidently, Thanksgiving Day had the highest AOV (average order value) out of all Cyber 5 days — something we haven’t seen since we started our Cyber 5 results report over a decade ago.

“Cyber Monday is a tradition, so I bought something just to buy something,” laughs our Founder and CEO, Udayan Bose. Many people, Bose included, were disappointed by the Cyber Monday sales. They may have still made a purchase, out of a sense of tradition, but not nearly as large as in prior years. 

A lackluster Cyber 5 was felt nationwide through the United States, as all regions had fairly even rates of decline. SMBs were hit the hardest within our dataset, experiencing a loss of 17% YoY, compared to a loss of just 1% for enterprise businesses. With rising CPCs, it is easier for enterprise businesses with great ad budgets to gain market share.

However, an agile media strategy can help you stay competitive. Keeping your content fresh and having a Plan A, Plan B, and even Plan C to account for different scenarios is important to remain nimble and competitive. A full-funnel, omnichannel marketing strategy that places equal emphasis on brand awareness and demand generation will help you stay top of mind and relevant to consumers. Within our dataset, industries whose paid media strategy we managed performed better than overall online sales, as noted by the table below:

The role of mobile continually increases. Mobile sales accounted for 62% of sitewide orders, but AOV was 46% less than desktop. Mobile is good for quick sales and searches, but consumers prefer to use their desktops for larger purchases. We expect mobile shopping to account for at least 75% of all holiday purchases by 2025. 

In prior years, consumers used to heavily shop between 6 PM to midnight (local time). Slowly, consumers have started to shop earlier in the day. This year, 33.5% of consumers made a purchase between noon and 6 PM (local time) and 32% between 6 AM and noon (local time). WFH may have contributed to this early shopping activity and could have a lasting impact of when customers shop online.

Extending Cyber 5

As brands become more value-led, Giving Tuesday may play a critical role in Cyber 5 online activity. We could even see an eventual Cyber 6. Already, plenty of brands are extending their Cyber Monday offerings throughout the week in an effort to recapture some of the lackluster customer demand. 

Search Engine Land, summarizing Adobe’s research, furthers that we could see November turn into Cyber Month. Over 21 days in November had revenue gains of over $3B, compared to only 8 days in November 2020, according to the article. The drive to shop early and prolonged sales could change the landscape of holiday shopping and lessen Cyber 5’s role. 

December 2021 Forecast

We are optimistic that last-minute shopping and more generous promotions by retailers will lead to a 5% YoY increase in online sales this holiday season. As retailers seek to make up for the Cyber 5 revenue dip, we suggest offering better deals to encourage last-minute shoppers. Ease of mobile shopping and BOPIS orders will drive last-minute buys throughout December. 

We expect marketplaces to account for 55% of all holiday purchases this season, so be sure to carefully leverage Amazon and other marketplaces in your holistic strategy. Amazon can be a great gateway to introducing customers to your products and brand. Creating a seamless brand experience on marketplaces can go a long way to converting loyal customers to your store.

If 30% of consumers have already completed their holiday shopping, then there is still 70% that has yet to do so. We believe there is a lot of pent-up demand that will be released in December as consumers finish checking off their gift list.

I firmly believe that retailers still have time to tweak their game plan and be successful,” Udayan Bose, Founder and CEO, summarizes.

A Successful Holiday and Post-Holiday Strategy

Being successful means creating backup plans to seize any opportunity. Innovation and agility are key strategic initiatives to attracting and retaining customers throughout the holiday season and beyond.

It is important to remember that Gen Z has a lot of buying power, which will only continue to grow in the coming years. Gen Z likes to research before buying and consider the social influence of both products and brands. They are the savviest and most informed shoppers compared to other generations. If a store’s options are not exceptional nor sales attractive, then Gen Z won’t buy. As a digital native shopper, Gen Z will also use mobile and social shopping more, so brands have to be ready to meet new customers wherever they are.

As consumer behavior continues to evolve rapidly and unexpectedly, brands should carefully monitor any shifts in how their customers search and shop online. Gain deeper insights into your customers’ purchase journey to minimize any possible friction and understand how their behavior continually evolves.

Be sure to check out our blog page for our weekly holiday breakdown for the remainder of the year. 

We compiled our data using our customer insights platform, LXRInsights. Say no to average this holiday season by targeting, engaging, and winning high-value customers. Request your demo now.

The post November 2021: Forecasts VS Results appeared first on NetElixir.

NetElixir’s Latest Holiday Forecast

Towards the end of November, we saw the biggest gains in three categories: fashion and apparel, consumer electronics, and gifting (i.e., subscription boxes, stationery, flowers, etc.). Mobile sales rose dramatically during the beginning of November, accounting for 56% of all online orders compared to 50.5% last year. 

Earlier in the month of November, we saw trends of panic buying, especially within the fashion and apparel retail category. Conversion rates for apparel alone were up 40% YoY, compared to about 13% across categories. Latency (the time between first website visit and the final purchase) shrunk by 5% in November 2021 compared to 2020. Leading up to Cyber 5, customers shopped more frequently and quickly. 

During Cyber 5, however, customers converted at a lower rate than last year and did not buy as much. Weaker Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions may have discouraged shoppers.

December 5 – 11, 2021 Online Sales Summary

We may still see quick conversions at the beginning of this week, but expect conversions to drop slightly and latency to increase slightly; after the build-up to Cyber 5 weekend, customers will slow down again and look for gifting inspiration as they may plan more last-minute in-store shopping.

At the beginning of the week, we see very high online sales growth. We expect at least 12% YoY e-commerce growth on Sunday and Monday. Sales will drop throughout the rest of the week to less than 5% YoY growth. 

We expect some large retailers to test creative promotional strategies throughout this week. Watch out for big brands like Target and Walmart that may run unique promotions. Be prepared to capitalize on online traffic and run your own promotions. Midsize and smaller businesses will need to be nimble and be ready with their game plans. After a slower-than-anticipated Black Friday, retailers may need to reconfigure their holiday promotions to entice shoppers to continue buying. Larger retailers can afford to run sweeter promotions and since they’re winning market share, other brands should follow suit to stay competitive. 

Overview of Cyber 5 Results

Some highlights of the crucial holiday weekend include:

• Online sales fell 7% YoY
• Website visits YoY are relatively flat
• Weaker Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions may have turned away some customers
• Thanksgiving Day had the highest average order value (AOV)
• Shoppers are informed and prudent about their purchasing decisions and are willing to wait for a better deal
• CPCs are up 40%+ YoY for most retail categories
• Full-funnel marketing is more important now than ever before so strong branding throughout the year pays off during these critical online shopping periods

As consumer behavior is constantly evolving, it is important to continually check in with how and when your customers are searching and shopping online

Keeping an Active Digital Presence

Retailers have to make difficult choices in regards to their future holiday strategy. They can focus on driving up revenue by being more flexible with ROI cut-offs to preserve or gain market share. By continuing to focus more on ROI, brands risk sacrificing revenue and losing valuable market share. It is critical to be decisive; doing nothing is not an option.

Don’t let stockouts bog down your marketing strategy. Use this time to promote user-generated content of customers using and gifting your products. Take the time to gather reviews and conduct customer surveys to better inform your 2022 strategy. Invest in your brand strategy so you can be memorable to customers in the future. Consider showing off your employees and putting faces to the online interactions customers dealt with throughout the year. Just because you may not have product left to promote does not mean you should quiet your digital presence in the last days of the year. Build up your community, take the time to thank your customers for their support, and tease what they can expect in the new year!

Further Insights

Say no to average this holiday season. Learn to identify, engage, and win high-value shoppers with NetElixir’s customer intelligence platform, LXRInsights. We’re leveraging our real-time customer insights to stay up to date with your consumers’ rapid changes in online shopping behavior. 

• Paid Search Holiday Tips
• Your 2021 SEO Strategy
• Designing Your 2021 Holiday Strategy

The post Week of December 5th: Holiday E-Commerce Calendar Breakdown appeared first on NetElixir.

Cyber 5 — the days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday — remain a crucial period for holiday sales, but the holiday season isn’t just about shopping. Giving Tuesday is rising in prominence, especially as customers respond well to brands that have a strong philanthropic mission. We may see the ever-expanding Cyber 5 evolve into a Cyber 6 weekend in the future. A Cyber 6 weekend would encompass the days from Thanksgiving to Giving Tuesday and promote high online activity that champions gifting and giving.

So What Is Cyber 6?

Cyber 6 may be the next evolution of Cyber 5, expanding the gifting and giving blitz throughout Giving Tuesday. Adding Giving Tuesday to the Cyber 5 weekend will help promote the holiday spirit of sharing joy and compassion for all those around us.

The 2021 holiday season requires a unique strategy in and of itself. However, changes in promotions can be welcomed by customers. Heavy discounts are no longer the only avenue to winning and engaging new customers throughout Cyber 5. We have advised some clients to release new products exclusively on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and Giving Tuesday. On Giving Tuesday, many companies are promoting charity items, of which a portion of proceeds will go to helping others.

Including your customers in promotions (such as letting them vote for the charity you donate to or matching their donations to a specific charity) can go a long way to making the holiday shopping season about more than just a good deal.

Leverage Giving Tuesday’s online traffic to talk about your brand’s own philanthropic efforts and showcase how you give back to the community all year long. 

How the Cyber 5 Weekend Has Evolved

Cyber 5 has been a mainstay in holiday shopping for the past few years, but it continues to evolve in line with the changing e-commerce space, as well as cultural and societal developments. 

Stores used to open early on Thanksgiving. Since the start of the pandemic, more retailers are staying closed on the holiday to allow employees to spend more time with their loved ones. Just days ago, Target announced that it will never again open on Thanksgiving.

Black Friday has expanded beyond a one-day in-store doorbuster frenzy. Now, brands promote early Black Friday deals, with some having teased sales as early as October. Brands promote a myriad of different sales culminating in Black Friday — but even so, Black Friday isn’t always the day of the deepest discounts. Brands have started leveraging lower shipping minimum, limited-time products, and lightning deals on different categories to keep customers clicking and shopping.

Cyber Monday is relatively new, first coined in 2005 as noted by the New York Times. During that time, people typically had a more reliable and faster internet connection in their office than in their homes, so they took the Monday back to work after the holiday to shop online. Nowadays, we don’t rely on our offices for a high-speed connection, but the idea of snagging online sales persists.

What Is Giving Tuesday?

Giving Tuesday is a day dedicated to easing the suffering of others through acts of generosity and kindness. Giving Tuesday started in 2012 as a means to encourage people to do good. These acts of kindness can range from “making someone smile, helping a neighbor or stranger out, showing up for an issue or people we care about, or giving some of what we have to those who need our help,” according to the nonprofit that champions the Giving Tuesday movement.

In a crowded e-commerce space, customers are expecting more from their favorite brands. To earn customer loyalty, companies are committing to values such as sustainability, philanthropy, and giving back to the community, rather than expecting to gain a following exclusively from discounted prices and quality products. Participating in Giving Tuesday is a great way for brands to stand for a social cause larger than themselves and get their customers involved.

Further Insights

We saw a slower-than-anticipated Black Friday this year. Keep up-to-date with the latest Cyber 5 (or Cyber 6) insights with NetElixir. Join our annual Cyber 5 Webinar: Results. Trends. Insights. To learn how your brand’s results compared to your competitors and industry trends. We’ll dive into what these trends mean for the rest of the holiday season and share insights into:

• The search-shop-buy behavior of your holiday shoppers
• Time of day when customers were most likely to complete a purchase
• The role of mobile over the Cyber 5 weekend

Don’t miss out on last-minute holiday tips!

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